Could history be repeating itself? The fate of Venezuela's embattled leader, Nicolás Maduro, hangs in the balance once again, and Russia's role in his survival is under intense scrutiny.
In 2019, the United States threw its weight behind opposition leader Juan Guaidó, aiming to topple Maduro's regime. Russia, however, stood firmly against this move, offering diplomatic support and a limited military presence to bolster its most significant Latin American ally. Maduro weathered the storm when Guaidó's call for a military uprising fell flat, much to Russia's relief and the United States' dismay. At the time, then-President Donald Trump had recognized Guaidó as Venezuela's interim president, further escalating tensions.
But here's where it gets controversial: Despite the shifting circumstances, the United States is once again tightening the screws on Maduro. The U.S. has significantly increased its military presence in the Caribbean, deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford—the world's largest aircraft carrier—and conducting strikes against alleged drug-trafficking vessels, resulting in numerous casualties. U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have labeled Maduro a "fugitive from American justice," citing a 2020 drug-crimes indictment. The bounty for information leading to his capture was recently doubled to a staggering $50 million.
In a November 2020 interview, Trump downplayed the likelihood of war with Venezuela but ominously suggested that Maduro's days might be numbered. And this is the part most people miss: Maduro is reportedly seeking Russia's support once more, but analysts argue that Moscow's ability to prevent a U.S.-led ouster is severely limited.
"Russia's options are essentially confined to diplomatic gestures if the U.S. is determined to remove Maduro," noted Mark Galeotti, a renowned Russia analyst and honorary professor at University College London's School of Slavonic and East European Studies.
Seeking Support—But at What Cost?
A recent Washington Post report revealed that Maduro allegedly wrote to Russian President Vladimir Putin, requesting enhanced air defenses, including the restoration of Sukhoi warplanes, missile acquisitions, and logistical support. The letter was reportedly delivered by Venezuela's transportation minister during a mid-October visit to Moscow. Maduro is also said to be seeking assistance from China and Iran.
While neither Russia nor Venezuela has confirmed these reports, a Russian Il-76 transport plane arrived in Caracas in late October, its cargo unknown. This move underscores Russia's commitment to supporting Maduro, though the extent of this support remains unclear.
Russia's Stance: Symbolic or Substantial?
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova denounced the U.S.'s use of excessive force in anti-drug operations and reaffirmed Moscow's support for Venezuela's sovereignty. However, experts suggest that Russia's military operations in the Western Hemisphere are largely symbolic, aimed at reminding the West of its global reach.
Instances like the 2018 landing of Russian strategic bombers in Caracas and the 2024 docking of Russian naval ships in Venezuela highlight Moscow's efforts to maintain a presence in the region. Yet, these actions may be more about posturing than providing substantial aid.
The Limitations of Russia's Influence
Vladimir Rouvinski, a Colombia-based analyst, observed that Russia's military presence in Venezuela—its first in the Western Hemisphere since the 1990s—demonstrates the Kremlin's determination to keep Venezuela within its sphere of influence. However, the crisis also exposed Russia's limitations, particularly its financial constraints in supporting Latin American policies.
Russia's resources are even more strained today due to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has diverted the majority of its military assets and triggered severe Western sanctions. The geographical distance between Russia and Venezuela further complicates any potential intervention.
"If the U.S. is serious about regime change in Venezuela through force, Russia is unlikely to provide meaningful assistance," stated Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at the Crisis Group. "This was impossible both before and after the Ukraine war, given the logistical challenges."
Geopolitical Calculations and Unintended Consequences
While the Ukraine war has forced Russia to focus on its own arms acquisitions, Venezuela has historically been a significant buyer of Russian weapons. Maduro recently claimed that Venezuela possesses 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S missiles for air defense.
Interestingly, Moscow might view the escalating U.S. pressure on Venezuela as a distraction from Ukraine, potentially reducing Western pressure to end the invasion. Some analysts even suggest that Maduro's ouster could paradoxically benefit Russia by reinforcing its narrative that the West, not Russia, is the true adversary of the Global South.
A Thought-Provoking Question for Our Readers:
Is Russia's support for Maduro a genuine commitment to sovereignty, or a calculated move to counter Western influence? Could the U.S.'s actions in Venezuela ultimately play into Russia's hands on the global stage? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
